Slight uptick in Bay Area home sales and prices

October 15, 2009

La Jolla, CA.----Home sales in the Bay Area edged up in September as buyers scrambled to take advantage of low mortgage interest rates as well as a tax credit due to expire at the end of November. The median sale price rose slightly from August, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 7,879 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine- county Bay Area last month. That was up 4.8 percent from 7,518 in August and up 8.4 percent from 7,271 in September 2008, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

The month-to-month gain was atypical: sales normally decline around 11 percent from August to September. In DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988, September sales have increased three other times, in 1988, 1992 and 2008. September sales have averaged 8,835, ranging from 5,014 in 2007 to 13,343 in 2003. Last month's year-over-year sales gain was the 13th in a row.

"This market may be closer to normal than it was a a half year ago, but it's still out of kilter, fueled in large part by incentives and the processing of distressed properties. The sales mix is still lopsided, tilting toward the low end, and lending institutions are only making really safe mortgage loans. For those who can buy, there are some very attractive opportunities. But it still looks like a lot of normal supply-and-demand activity has been put on hold until the economy comes back," said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.

The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $365,000 last month. That was up 1.4 percent from $360,000 in August, and down 8.8 percent from $400,000 for September a year ago. The year-over-year decline was the smallest since January 2008, when the $550,000 median was off 8.5 percent. The Bay Area median peaked at $665,000 in June 2007. About half the decline in median since then is due to a drop in home values, the other half can be attributed to the shift in market mix.

A slight rebound in the availability of so-called "jumbo" mortgages, home loans for more than $417,000, has leveled off. Before the August 2007 credit crunch hit, 60 percent of the Bay Area's home purchase loans were jumbos. By last January that had dropped to 17.1 percent. By July it was 30.1 percent, and last month it was 29.3 percent.

Last month 32.8 percent of all homes resold in the Bay Area had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months, down from 34.4 percent in August and the lowest since the figure was 29.9 percent in June 2008. The peak was 52.0 percent this February. By county, foreclosure resales ranged last month from 9.6 percent of all resales in San Francisco to 56.9 percent in Solano.

The use of government-insured FHA loans - a common choice among first-time buyers - represented 25.1 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans in September, up slightly from 24.9 percent in August and from 18.7% in September 2008.

The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,578 last month, down from $1,580 the previous month, and down from $1,927 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 40 percent below typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 55.7 percent below the current cycle's peak in July 2007.

Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, down payment sizes are stable, and non-owner occupied buying is above-average in some markets, MDA DataQuick reported.

	Sales Volume			Median Price
All homes	Sep-08	Sep-09	%Chng	Sep-08	Sep-09	%Chng
Alameda	1,410	1,681	19.2%	$389,500	$358,000	-8.1%
Contra Costa	1,780	1,607	-9.7%	$300,000	$262,000	-12.7%
Marin	231	223	-3.5%	$680,000	$636,000	-6.5%
Napa	132	114	-13.6%	$439,000	$360,000	-18.0%
Santa Clara	1,607	1,907	18.7%	$505,500	$450,000	-11.0%
San Francisco	458	536	17.0%	$675,000	$650,000	-3.7%
San Mateo	462	624	35.1%	$603,000	$570,000	-5.5%
Solano	646	678	5.0%	$263,500	$199,000	-24.5%
Sonoma	545	509	-6.6%	$347,500	$320,000	-7.9%
Bay Area	7,271	7,879	8.4%	$400,000	$365,000	-8.8%