Southland Home Sales Flat, Prices Edge Down

Februry 15, 2012

La Jolla, CA---The Southland housing market started 2012 with slightly higher sales and slightly lower prices despite record-low mortgage interest rates. Home sales skewed toward the lower price ranges, which is normal for January, as many traditional buyers retreated and investors snapped up homes at a record level, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 14,523 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was down 24.5 percent from 19,247 in December, and up 0.4 percent from 14,458 in January 2011, according to DataQuick of San Diego.

Sales have increased year-over-year for five of the last six months. The sharp sales decline from December is normal for the season. Last month’s sales count was 17.8 percent below the 17,671 average for all the months of January since 1988.

A total of 669 newly built homes sold in January, the lowest number for any month since DataQuick started keeping track in 1988.

“January numbers have never been very good at providing an indication of what upcoming activity will be like. For that we need to wait until March. What we can determine is that the mortgage market remains dysfunctional. It will be interesting to see how a potential surge of refinance activity plays into the purchase market once the administration’s new guidelines are implemented,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

The median price paid for a Southland home last month was $260,000, down 3.7 percent from $270,000 for both December and January last year. The median was the lowest since $249,000 in May 2009. The median’s low point for the current real estate cycle was $247,000 in April 2009, while the high point was $505,000 in mid 2007. The peak-to-trough drop was due to a decline in home values as well as a shift in sales toward lower-cost homes, especially inland foreclosures.

Distressed sales made up more than half of January’s resale market.

Foreclosure resales – properties foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – made up 32.6 percent of resales last month, up from a revised 32.4 percent in December and down from 36.8 percent a year earlier. Foreclosure resales hit a high of 56.7 percent in February 2009 and a low of 32.8 percent last June.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 21.3 percent of Southland resales last month. That was a high for the current real estate cycle and compares with 19.6 percent in both December and January 2011.

Meanwhile, credit conditions remained tight.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) accounted for 6.0 percent of last month’s Southland home purchase loans, down from 6.4 percent in December and 7.0 percent a year ago. Since 2000, a monthly average of about 35 percent of purchase loans were ARMs.

Jumbo loans, mortgages above the old conforming limit of $417,000, accounted for 13.6 percent of last month’s purchase lending, down from 15.2 percent in both December and a year earlier. In the months leading up to the credit crisis that struck in August 2007, jumbos accounted for 40 percent of the market.

Absentee buyers – mostly investors and some second-home purchasers – bought a record 26.8 percent of the Southland homes sold in January, paying a median $193,500. The Inland Empire saw absentee purchases rise to a record 33.6 percent of all sales. Since 2000, the Southland’s absentee buyers purchased a monthly average of 16.9 percent of all homes sold.

Cash purchasers accounted for a near-record 31.4 percent of January home sales, paying a median $199,000. That was up from 29.8 percent in December, and up from 30.4 percent a year earlier. The 10-year monthly average for Southland homes purchased with cash is 15.1 percent. Cash purchases are where there was no indication in the public record that a corresponding purchase loan was recorded.

Government-insured FHA loans, a popular low-down-payment choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 31.2 percent of all purchase mortgages in January. Last month’s FHA level was up from 30.7 percent in December but down from 33.2 percent in January 2011. Two years ago FHA loans made up 35.0 percent of the purchase loan market, while three years ago it was 38.9 percent.

Last month 16.0 percent of all sales were for $500,000 or more, down from a revised 18.4 percent in December and down from 18.3 percent a year earlier. The low point for $500,000-plus sales was in January 2009, when only 13.8 percent of sales were above that threshold. Over the past decade, a monthly average of 27.2 percent of homes sold for $500,000 or more.

Viewed differently, Southland zip codes in the top one-third of the housing market, based on historical prices, accounted for 35.1 percent of total sales last month. That was down from 36.4 percent in December but up from 33.6 percent a year earlier. Over the last 10 years, those higher-end areas contributed a monthly average of 36.7 percent of regional sales. Their contribution to overall sales hit a low of 26.2 percent in January 2009.

DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts.

The typical monthly mortgage payment that Southland buyers committed themselves to paying was $983 last month, the lowest since it was also $983 in May 1999. Adjusted for inflation, last month’s typical monthly mortgage payment is the lowest in DataQuick’s records, which go back to 1988.

Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards but is lower than peak levels reached over the last two years. Financing with multiple mortgages is very low, and down payment sizes are stable, DataQuick reported.

	Sales Volume			Median Price
All homes	Jan-11	Jan-12	%Chng	Jan-11	Jan-12	%Chng
Los Angeles	4,908	4,997	1.8%	$300,000	$289,000	-3.7%
Orange	1,929	1,872	-3.0%	$415,000	$392,000	-5.5%
Riverside	2,738	2,684	-2.0%	$190,000	$180,500	-5.0%
San Bernardino	2,085	2,051	-1.6%	$151,500	$150,000	-1.0%
San Diego	2,248	2,358	4.9%	$304,000	$305,000	0.3%
Ventura	550	561	2.0%	$350,000	$322,500	-7.9%
SoCal	14,458	14,523	0.4%	$270,000	$260,000	-3.7%

Source: DQNews.com Media calls: Andrew LePage (916) 456-7157