California mortgage default filings drop amid procedural change

October 23, 2008

La Jolla, CA.--The number of mortgage default notices filed against California homeowners fell last quarter for the first time in three years as a change in the state's formal foreclosure process took effect. If that procedural change hadn't kicked in during early September, indications are that third-quarter default filings would have been about the same as the record number filed in this year's second quarter, a real estate information service reported.

Mortgage servicers recorded 94,240 "notices of default" on homes during the July-through-September period. That was down 22.5 percent from a revised record of 121,673 in this year's second quarter, and up 29.9 percent from 72,571 in third-quarter 2007, according to MDA DataQuick. The San Diego-based firm's default statistics begin in 1992.

The last time default filings fell from one quarter to the next was in the second quarter of 2005.

This year default filings totaled about 40,000 for each month from March to August. In September the number dropped to 14,995 filings as a new state law took effect early that month. It requires that in many instances lenders must try to contact homeowners delinquent on their mortgage payments, then wait 30 days before filing a default notice.

During the first week of September, before the law took effect, roughly 2,000 default notices were filed each business day in California. In the week after the law kicked in, average daily filings plunged to less than 100, then went back up to around 500 daily the final week of September.

"It's unclear just how much foreclosure activity will be time-shifted into future months. We'll know more when we have fourth-quarter numbers. What's interesting is that the surge in activity certainly did level off during the second and third quarters. A lot of the market's distress is working its way through the system and the spectacular jumps in activity may be behind us. Or it may be that those processing the default paperwork are just maxed out," said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

Most of the loans that went into default last quarter were originated between October 2005 and February 2007. The median age was 28 months, up from 18 months a year earlier.

On primary mortgages, California homeowners were a median five months behind on their payments when the lender filed the notice of default. The borrowers owed a median $11,184 on a median $345,000 mortgage.

On home equity loans and lines of credit, homeowners were a median eight months behind on their payments. Borrowers owed a median $3,286 on a median $57,950 credit line. However the amount of the credit line that was actually in use cannot be determined from public records.

DataQuick, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates, monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts.

Notices of default are recorded at county recorders offices and mark the first step of the formal foreclosure process.

Although 94,240 default notices were filed last quarter, they involved 91,927 homes because some borrowers were in default on multiple loans (e.g. a primary mortgage and a line of credit).

Of the homeowners in default, an estimated 20 percent emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe. A year ago it was about 46 percent. The increased portion of homes lost to foreclosure reflects the weakness in the real estate market, as well as the number of homes bought at the height of the market with multiple-loan financing, which makes lender "work-outs" difficult.

Multiple-loan financing peaked in the fourth quarter of 2006 at 61 percent of all financed home purchases. Last quarter it was 6.5 percent.

Trustees Deeds recorded, or the actual loss of homes to foreclosure, totaled a record 79,511 during the third quarter. That's the highest since DataQuick began tracking Trustees Deeds in 1988. Last quarter's total rose 25.6 percent from a revised 63,316 in the previous quarter, and rose 228.4 percent from 24,209 in third quarter 2007. In the last real estate cycle, Trustees Deeds peaked at 15,418 in third-quarter 1996. The all-time low was 637 in the second quarter of 2005.

Because a foreclosure typically takes about four to six months, or longer, the recent procedural changes for default filings probably won't affect Trustees Deed counts much before the end of this year.

There are 8.4 million houses and condos in the state, DataQuick reported.

Foreclosure resales have emerged as a major market factor, accounting for 47.6 percent of all California resale activity last quarter. A year ago it was 9.5 percent. Foreclosure resales - homes that had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months - vary significantly by area, from 7.3 percent of resales in San Francisco County to 77.9 percent in Merced County.

Notices of Default (first step in foreclosure process)
houses and condos

County/Region 2007Q3 2008Q3 Yr/Yr%
       
Los Angeles 13,583 17,073 25.70%
Orange 3,882 5,692 46.60%
San Diego 5,673 7,062 24.50%
Riverside 9,250 11,714 26.60%
San Bernardino 7,038 9,110 29.40%
Ventura 1,377 1,676 21.70%
Imperial 259 568 119.30%
SoCal 41,062 52,895 28.80%
       
San Francisco 252 353 40.10%
Alameda 2,126 3,482 63.80%
Contra Costa 3,216 4,103 27.60%
Santa Clara 1,655 2,814 70.00%
San Mateo 581 797 37.20%
Marin 172 258 50.00%
Solano 1,513 1,934 27.80%
Sonoma 749 1,021 36.30%
Napa 163 265 62.60%
Bay Area 10,427 15,027 44.10%
       
Santa Cruz 267 342 28.10%
Santa Barbara 598 593 -0.80%
San Luis Obispo 249 370 48.60%
Monterey 751 1,260 67.80%
Coast 1,865 2,565 37.50%
       
Sacramento 4,947 5,541 12.00%
San Joaquin 2,961 3,432 15.90%
Placer 728 973 33.70%
Kern 2,196 2,774 26.30%
Fresno 1,807 2,202 21.90%
Madera 320 499 55.90%
Merced 1,076 1,399 30.00%
Tulare 595 883 48.40%
Yolo 303 405 33.70%
El Dorado 278 342 23.00%
Stanislaus 1,909 2,636 38.10%
Kings 108 140 29.60%
San Benito 178 202 13.50%
Yuba 227 307 35.20%
Colusa 54 68 25.90%
Sutter 155 269 73.50%
Central Valley 17,842 22,072 23.70%
       
Mountains* 417 526 26.10%
       
North Calif* 958 1,155 20.60%
       
Statewide* 72,571 94,240 29.90%

* includes additional counties

Trustees Deeds Recorded (signal homes were lost to foreclosure)
houses and condos

County/Region 2007Q3 2008Q3 %Chng
       
LOS ANGELES 3,627 11,690 222.30%
ORANGE 1,280 3,997 212.30%
SAN DIEGO 2,157 5,797 168.80%
RIVERSIDE 3,462 10,813 212.30%
SAN BERNARDINO 2,255 7,930 251.70%
VENTURA 454 1,420 212.80%
IMPERIAL 79 476 502.50%
SOCAL 13,314 42,123 216.40%
       
SAN FRANCISCO 66 192 190.90%
ALAMEDA 674 2,521 274.00%
CONTRA COSTA 1,159 3,662 216.00%
SANTA CLARA 410 2,165 428.00%
SAN MATEO 155 515 232.30%
MARIN 41 149 263.40%
SOLANO 495 1,754 254.30%
SONOMA 201 933 364.20%
NAPA 41 202 392.70%
BAY AREA 3,242 12,093 273.00%
       
SANTA CRUZ 71 276 288.70%
SANTA BARBARA 211 629 198.10%
SAN LUIS OBISPO 75 248 230.70%
MONTEREY 266 1,315 394.40%
COAST 623 2,468 296.10%
       
SACRAMENTO 2,065 5,643 173.30%
SAN JOAQUIN 1,136 3,862 240.00%
PLACER 294 766 160.50%
KERN 729 2,488 241.30%
FRESNO 483 1,891 291.50%
MADERA 110 433 293.60%
MERCED 423 1,639 287.50%
TULARE 167 687 311.40%
YOLO 96 364 279.20%
EL DORADO 110 243 120.90%
STANISLAUS 752 2,816 274.50%
KINGS 18 82 355.60%
SAN BENITO 62 191 208.10%
YUBA 108 297 175.00%
COLUSA 19 40 110.50%
SUTTER 58 291 401.70%
CENTRAL VALLEY 6,630 21,733 227.80%
       
MOUNTAINS* 113 324 186.70%
       
NORTH CALIF* 287 770 168.30%
       
STATEWIDE* 24,209 79,511 228.40%

* includes additional counties

Source: DataQuick Information Systems

Media calls: Andrew LePage (916)456-7157 or John Karevoll (909)867-9534

Copyright 2008 DataQuick Information Systems. All rights reserved.

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